by Ajay Kumar
Lucknow: The political contest in Delhi is set. Only the announcement of the election date remains. This time, despite being part of the INDIA alliance, Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are fighting separate elections. Meanwhile, the BJP is also in the field with full strength, and the Samajwadi Party and BSP, which have a stronghold in UP, are not behind. In the Delhi Assembly elections, while AAP faces the challenge of retaining its 11-year-old government, the BJP aims to make a comeback. However, it is contesting the elections without a chief ministerial face, and whether this will help or hurt them will only be known after the results are out. Congress, which once dominated Delhi, is in the election field but lacks a face like Sheila Dikshit to make a comeback to power.
It is noteworthy that after the restoration of the Legislative Assembly in the Union Territory of Delhi, the first assembly elections were held in 1993. Since then, seven assembly elections have been held in the capital. The BJP was successful in winning only once, in 1993. After losing power in 1998, it has not managed to make a comeback. This raises the question of why the BJP has never been able to win the heart of Delhi and whether it will break this political barrier in 2025. The BJP has been in political exile in Delhi for the past 26 years. For 15 years, under Sheila Dikshit’s leadership, the BJP could not compete, and after that, it was never able to overcome the challenge posed by Arvind Kejriwal. Since Sheila Dikshit’s tenure, BJP leadership has struggled against Arvind Kejriwal, who has been the face of the AAP for the past 11 years.
Now, with the new year’s arrival, the political heat in Delhi is rising again. The BJP wants to make the lotus bloom in Delhi in 2025 and has put all its strength into it. However, the path to power in Delhi is not easy for the BJP. The Modi-Shah duo, which has been a guarantee of success for the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, has seen the party winning in state after state. From the North to the South and from the West to the Northeast, the BJP’s victory has resonated. The credit for these wins is attributed to the Modi-Shah duo, but in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi elections, the duo could not make an impact against Kejriwal. What is the biggest reason that has prevented the BJP from winning in Delhi?
The BJP has failed to understand Delhi’s political temperament. The formula that works in other states does not work in Delhi’s assembly elections. Delhi’s politics does not give importance to caste or religion, and Delhi’s voters do not pay heed to negative campaigning, as a large section of Delhi consists of businessmen. There are three types of elections in Delhi, and voting patterns for each are different. In the Lok Sabha elections, Delhi has chosen the BJP, but in the assembly elections, it has favored the AAP. Even during Sheila Dikshit’s tenure, this trend was evident: while Congress won the assembly elections, the BJP won the Lok Sabha elections. In the MCD elections, the BJP once had control, but now it’s held by the AAP.
In Delhi’s elections, the leader’s personality matters more than the party. In 1993, the BJP won by promoting Madan Lal Khurana, but within just five years, the party had to change its CM three times. As a result, BJP sent the wrong political message to the people of Delhi, and it bore the consequences in the 1998 elections. Since then, the BJP has failed to produce a leader capable of challenging Sheila Dikshit or Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi’s political landscape.
Sheila Dikshit, who led Congress to victory in the 1998 elections, ruled Delhi for 15 years as its chief minister. She had created her own development model and dominated Delhi from 1998 to 2013. During these 15 years, the BJP could never challenge Congress, nor did any BJP leader emerge who could stand up to Sheila Dikshit’s stature. After 2013, Arvind Kejriwal, who rose from the Anna movement, defeated the BJP and firmly established himself, a position the BJP could never unseat. The BJP made several attempts to counter Kejriwal, but it couldn’t rise to the occasion.
The party in power at the center handles Delhi’s politics in a similar manner. Neither Congress nor the BJP gives too much space to their own leaders in Delhi. Allowing a leader to gain prominence in Delhi would mean raising their political stature, and neither national party wants to do that. Sheila Dikshit had established herself in the Congress party, but she didn’t receive much support from the party itself. Similarly, the BJP does not give too much importance to its Delhi leaders, which is why it has never been able to present a strong leader to challenge Kejriwal.
