Ajay Kumar I Lucknow
In Uttar Pradesh, the political equation against the BJP is rapidly shifting once again. As the opposition to the Bharatiya Janata Party and Yogi government fails to gain momentum, new political dynamics are emerging in the state. In this new equation, the role of Mamata Banerjee, the president of the Trinamool Congress, could be significant. For this reason, the Samajwadi Party is supporting the demand to give Mamata Banerjee the leadership of the INDIA alliance. It is possible that by the time of the 2027 assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party may break free from the Congress and, at the behest of Mamata Banerjee, renew its old alliance with Mayawati under the “Bua-Bhatija” (Aunt-Nephew) formula. If this happens, it could deal a severe blow to the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. This possibility is increasing because, in recent days or months, Congress has been trying to infiltrate the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim vote bank. As the distances between the Samajwadi Party and Congress grow, public statements against each other also intensify. The Congress’s failures in Maharashtra and Haryana elections are also seen as a key factor in this. These growing differences are also visible in Parliament, where the two parties are not showing solidarity on various issues. Samajwadi Party leaders say that when charges were filed against their MP in Sambhal, Congress did not protest in the manner they had expected. It is also believed that the rift between the two parties deepened when the seat of Samajwadi Party MP Awadhesh Prasad was placed behind in the Lok Sabha, despite prior discussions on seat allocation. The Samajwadi Party feels that Congress did not take it into confidence during the seat arrangement. On the other hand, Congress sources claim that the Samajwadi Party did not extend the necessary support to them on issues like the Adani matter in Parliament.
This discord has also led to a situation where Samajwadi Party leader and former minister Azam Khan, currently in jail, sent a message to the INDIA alliance, urging them to clarify their policy on the attacks on Muslims and to raise the issue of the atrocities in Rampur in Parliament as forcefully as they did in Sambhal. The rift between Congress and the Samajwadi Party further deepened when the Samajwadi Party stated that they would not have any objections if Mamata Banerjee were given the leadership of the INDIA alliance instead of Congress. After Congress’s repeated defeats in several elections following the Lok Sabha elections, internal contradictions are growing within the INDIA alliance. On the other hand, there are discussions that Uttar Pradesh’s political landscape may again undergo a transformation. Amid the growing distances between the Samajwadi Party and Congress, Mayawati’s stance could give rise to new political equations.
Samajwadi Party leaders believe that Congress did not adequately oppose the charges against their MP in Sambhal, and similarly, when the seat of their Faizabad (Ayodhya) MP Awadhesh Prasad was placed behind, it created discomfort in their relationship with Congress. The Samajwadi Party claims that Congress has not been sufficiently supportive on issues like the Adani case. As a result, Samajwadi Party’s National Vice President Kirnamay Nanda has stated that Mamata Banerjee is a senior leader, and the party high command also supports the idea of Mamata Banerjee leading the INDIA alliance. The Samajwadi Party’s General Secretary, Prof. Ramgopal, has also said that they do not consider Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the INDIA alliance. According to a Samajwadi Party leader in the coordination committee, Congress is not serious about the alliance. Their leaders become active only during elections, which doesn’t help in building a solid base. Therefore, it would be better if Mamata Banerjee led the alliance. In order to defeat the BJP, it is essential to have a well-planned strategy and remain in constant touch with the people.
As far as the BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) is concerned, the growing distance between Congress and Samajwadi Party in the Haryana and Maharashtra elections, as well as in the Uttar Pradesh by-polls, could be politically beneficial for the BSP. The party is closely watching the shifting political dynamics. If Congress and Samajwadi Party cannot reconcile, the formation of a third front may provide BSP with an opportunity to regain its relevance in national politics. Political analysts believe that the party, in order to maintain its relevance, might need the support of other parties.
Looking at the history of the BSP, the party had won a majority in the 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Before that, it had formed governments with the help of other parties, which helped it win in the Lok Sabha elections as well. In 2012, BSP decided to contest elections independently, which turned out to be a mistake. Similarly, in the 2017 Assembly elections, it faced losses. In 2019, BSP formed an alliance with the Samajwadi Party and became a party with 10 MPs. However, after that, the party’s performance in the 2022 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, contesting alone, resulted in significant losses. Now, the party’s hopes rest on the possibility of a third front. Although Mayawati is not keen on joining forces with the Samajwadi Party, Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal, could potentially bring both parties together on a single platform. According to political analysts, if a third front is formed without Congress, Mamata Banerjee could become its undisputed leader. Previously, there were concerns about a challenge from Mayawati, but these have faded due to the BSP’s declining support base in recent elections. Now, in order to recover its lost support, BSP may need to seek the help of other parties. Additionally, Mayawati has called back old BSP members to rejoin the party.
