Ajay Kumar, Senior Journalist
Lucknow (U.P.)
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has remained out of power in Uttar Pradesh for nearly 15 years. After governing the state from 2007 to 2012, the party has suffered defeats in the last three Assembly elections, while its performance in three Lok Sabha elections during this period has also been extremely poor. Consequently, a perception emerged that BSP supremo Mayawati’s political era was nearing its end — a view reinforced by her limited participation in active election campaigning in recent years.
However, a look back at the BSP’s last Assembly victory in 2007 reveals that it was achieved through Mayawati’s widely discussed social engineering strategy. That election marked a historic moment when the BSP secured an unexpected landslide, winning 206 of 403 seats with a vote share of 30.43 percent. The victory was driven not only by its traditional Dalit base but also by support from Brahmins, sections of non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), and Muslim voters. Nevertheless, the party failed to replicate this formula in subsequent elections.
Nearly two decades later, ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, signs are again visible of Dalit consolidation alongside renewed support from Brahmins and Muslims in favor of the BSP. Analysts suggest that one reason for Brahmins gravitating toward the party is a sense of marginalization during the Yogi Adityanath government. Many among them feel sidelined in bureaucracy and governance, a sentiment reflected in the recent entry of several Brahmin leaders into the BSP.
In January 2026, senior BJP leader Radheshyam Pandey of Ambedkar Nagar joined the BSP along with dozens of Brahmin supporters after meeting Mayawati. Earlier, in December 2025, prominent Brahmin figures — including Jitendra Mishra, Deepak Dwivedi, Neeraj Pandey, Vishal Mishra, Vaibhav Dubey, Anurag Shukla, and Mohit Sharma — left the BJP to join the BSP, developments viewed as a setback for the BJP ahead of 2027. Another prominent Brahmin leader also met Mayawati and joined the party in January 2026.
Among Muslims, there is a perception in some sections that while the Samajwadi Party seeks their votes, it does not adequately safeguard their interests. Critics point to the handling of senior SP leader Azam Khan’s legal troubles and cite the deaths of figures such as Atiq Ahmed and Mukhtar Ansari as issues that have fueled discontent. Such sentiments, according to observers, are contributing to a renewed shift toward the BSP among some Muslim voters.
Dalits have historically been the BSP’s core support base. Survey data from earlier elections indicated that about 86 percent of Jatav voters supported the party, along with 71 percent of Valmikis, 53 percent of Pasis, and 58 percent of other Scheduled Castes. This strong backing proved crucial, given that Dalits constitute roughly 21 percent of Uttar Pradesh’s population.
Support from upper castes, particularly Brahmins, also played a decisive role in 2007. About 16 percent backed the BSP, and of the 51 Brahmin candidates fielded, 20 were elected. Limited but meaningful support also came from Thakurs and other upper-caste groups.
Backward classes further strengthened the coalition. Around 30 percent of non-Yadav, non-Kurmi OBC voters supported the BSP, influenced by promises of development and governance reforms. The party fielded 110 OBC candidates, benefiting from shifts away from rival parties.
Muslim voters contributed significantly as well. In 2007, they accounted for over 10 percent of the BSP’s total vote share, with some surveys estimating support at around 17 percent. Of 61 Muslim candidates fielded, 29 were elected MLAs. Given Muslims make up nearly 19 percent of the state’s population, this backing proved crucial to the party’s majority.
Mayawati’s strategy broke traditional caste barriers. While often framed as a Dalit–Brahmin alliance, the victory was in fact built on the combined support of Dalits across sub-castes, sections of backward classes, upper castes, and Muslims. The BSP’s vote share rose from 23 percent in 2002 to 30 percent in 2007, aided by outreach initiatives such as Prabuddh Varg conferences and strong performance in Muslim-dominated constituencies.
After coming to power, the government emphasized law and order and infrastructure development. The delicate caste balance reshaped the political landscape, with Dalits providing a stable core vote, upper-caste candidates securing representation, backward classes contributing substantial support, and Muslims strengthening the majority base.
Recent developments suggest Mayawati may again be courting Brahmin voters. Her responses to issues such as new University Grants Commission rules and the controversy over the Bollywood film Ghooskhor Pandit have been viewed as signals of outreach to upper castes. She called for restraint in implementing the UGC regulations and demanded a ban on the film amid protests, condemning what she described as derogatory portrayals of Brahmins.
In a post on X on February 6, Mayawati said it was a matter of concern that Brahmins were being depicted negatively in films, leading to humiliation and anger within the community. The BSP condemned the portrayal and urged the central government to ban the film.
In 2007, the BSP used social engineering with Brahmins to secure a majority government. With similar signals emerging ahead of 2027, Mayawati’s latest political messaging is widely seen as an indication that the party may once again attempt to revive the same electoral formula.
