by Ajay Kumar
As the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections draw closer, political equations in the state are beginning to shift. Mayawati, who has long been the central figure of the Dalit vote bank, is now working on a strategy to attract Muslim votes. Meanwhile, discussions are gaining momentum about senior Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Azam Khan moving closer to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). This development could pose a political challenge for SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, as his party relies heavily on Muslim and Yadav voters.
After witnessing BSP’s poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mayawati has altered her strategy. Her party, once the sole voice of Dalits, is now reduced to just one MLA. In this scenario, Mayawati is exploring old alliances to woo Muslim voters once again. Reports of Azam Khan, a senior SP leader and prominent Muslim face, leaning towards BSP are a strong indication in this direction. The growing distance of Azam and his son Abdullah Azam from the SP, along with their meetings with Chandrashekhar Azad’s party (MP from Nagina), have become a topic of political discussion.
Azam Khan’s tilt towards BSP could pose a multi-pronged threat to Akhilesh. The Muslim vote bank, which forms about 20% of the electorate, has been a significant strength for SP. However, losing a powerful leader like Azam could harm the party, especially in western UP, where Muslim and Dalit voters play a decisive role. In areas like Rampur and Moradabad, Azam’s influence remains strong. If he aligns with BSP, it could help Mayawati forge a Muslim-Dalit alliance.
In 2024, Akhilesh Yadav had challenged the BJP using his PDA (Backward, Dalit, Minority) formula. But the SP’s defeat in the by-elections indicated that there could be a breach in the Muslim vote bank. Mayawati’s renewed focus on Muslim voters and the potential support from Azam Khan could weaken this core base of the SP. Moreover, Mayawati’s accusations that SP misleads Dalit and Muslim voters have further intensified political tensions.
On the other hand, Akhilesh is trying to counter this challenge by inducting Dalit and OBC leaders into the SP. However, if Azam Khan joins hands with BSP, Akhilesh will have to rethink his strategy. The 2027 election is set to script a new chapter in UP politics, where the strategies of Mayawati and Akhilesh are squarely pitted against each other.
Meanwhile, speculation is also rising about a possible alliance between BSP supremo Mayawati and AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi. Both leaders aim to unite Dalit and Muslim votes to challenge the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance. While Mayawati has a strong base among Dalits, Owaisi holds significant sway in the Muslim community. Under a “PDM” (Backward, Dalit, Muslim) banner, this alliance could be especially effective in western UP and Bihar.
However, the road ahead won’t be easy. In 2019, Mayawati had accused Owaisi of treating Muslim leadership as untouchable, while Owaisi had blamed her for promoting extremism. Yet, in the changing political landscape, both leaders seem to see an opportunity to come together. If this alliance materializes, it could cause a political earthquake in UP. It may split the secular vote, indirectly benefiting the BJP.
