Sanjay Saxena I Lucknow
All this is happening at a time when the BJP replaced rising leader Annamalai with Nainar Nagendran as the state president. It was believed that this fulfilled one of Palaniswami’s conditions, and there would be no further hurdles in the alliance. However, AIADMK is now repeatedly stating that they will contest elections with BJP but will not form a government together, making it clear that their intentions are still ambiguous. Political circles are abuzz with speculation that this alliance may have been a strategic move just to oust Annamalai. The way Palaniswami strongly opposed Annamalai initially and is now raising new issues even after his removal deepens these doubts further.
It’s worth noting that in Tamil Nadu politics, issues like anti-Hindi sentiment, cultural identity, and regional pride have always dominated. In such a scenario, aligning with a national party like BJP often becomes a political risk for Dravidian parties. Palaniswami, too, may be avoiding openly sharing power with BJP for this very reason. On one hand, he wants to benefit from BJP’s support to dislodge the DMK from power; on the other hand, he wants to maintain a distance from BJP to secure his regional voter base. That is why he keeps emphasizing that Narendra Modi will be the leader at the Center, but in Tamil Nadu, it will be only him Palaniswami. This suggests that AIADMK does not want BJP to gain too much strength in Tamil Nadu.
Political analysts believe that such alliances are not new in Tamil Nadu politics. DMK and AIADMK have often formed alliances during elections but have shied away from sharing power with their allies after coming to power. DMK wins elections in alliance with Congress and Left parties but forms the government alone. AIADMK now seems to be following the same pattern — forming an alliance with BJP for electoral advantage but avoiding giving them a share in power. It appears that Jayalalithaa’s party is merely using BJP as a vote bank. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP secured over 11 percent of the votes, which can significantly impact the outcome of any election.
If we look at the numbers, in the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP-AIADMK alliance secured nearly 40 percent of the votes, while the DMK and its allies got 45 percent. It was a close contest. However, in 2023, after Annamalai was appointed state president, relations between BJP and AIADMK soured, leading to the breakup of the alliance. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both parties contested separately and both suffered losses. AIADMK received 20.46 percent votes, and BJP secured 11.24 percent a combined total of about 31.7 percent. Had they contested together, the number could have approached 41 percent, which might have somewhat countered the DMK alliance’s 47 percent.
This statistic has taught BJP that it cannot come to power in Tamil Nadu on its own. Hence, they decided to rejoin hands with AIADMK. But witnessing the rising popularity and aggressive style of Annamalai, Palaniswami likely felt threatened and demanded his removal. BJP agreed and appointed Nainar Nagendran as the new state president, yet AIADMK’s stance remains rigid. This entire episode suggests that Palaniswami only wants to derive political benefit from the alliance but is unwilling to make BJP a partner in power.
Another interesting point is that Tamil Nadu BJP’s new president, Nainar Nagendran, has given a very measured response to the controversy. He stated that the decision on forming a coalition government would be made at the appropriate time by the leadership of both parties. In other words, even BJP is refraining from making any bold statements. Amit Shah also reiterated that seat-sharing and other issues would be clarified at the right time. This clearly shows that while BJP is displeased with Palaniswami’s remarks, it is not ready to create a confrontation for now.
But won’t this soft approach hurt BJP in the long run? Because if it doesn’t get a share in power even after winning the elections, it could lead to growing frustration among its workers. This would weaken the party’s image, and in a state like Tamil Nadu, where BJP has so far remained away from power, it might fail to build a strong identity. Meanwhile, Palaniswami’s dual game shows that he wants to defeat DMK with BJP’s support but simultaneously keep BJP out of power to strengthen his own party’s position. This strategy may be clever, but in terms of stability, it’s extremely risky.
For BJP, this alliance is both a major opportunity and a significant challenge. It’s an opportunity because aligning with a strong regional party like AIADMK can help BJP strengthen its presence in Tamil Nadu. It’s a challenge because if AIADMK does not give BJP a share in power after winning the election, the alliance would be reduced to just a transactional deal, offering no long-term benefit. BJP will have to decide whether it wants to remain a supporting partner only for votes or if it is ready to assert itself for power-sharing.
Palaniswami, on the other hand, seems to understand well that BJP’s support is essential to defeat the DMK. But he also knows that if BJP is made a partner in governance, his own leadership may be questioned. That is why he is trying to balance both sides forming an alliance with BJP to appease DMK opponents, and keeping BJP away from power to uphold Tamil pride and regional identity.
This is the political game where every player moves at the right time. The 2026 elections in Tamil Nadu will be no different. If Palaniswami maintains this stance even after the elections, it will be a major blow to BJP. But if BJP succeeds in increasing its vote base, then in the future it may not feel the need to rely on any party like AIADMK. Then, perhaps, the political equations in Tamil Nadu will once again take a new turn.
For now, one thing is certain this alliance is not permanent but a temporary political arrangement, with both parties seeking their own gains. But there’s no guarantee when these gains might turn into losses, and when the alliance might collapse again. The real picture will only become clear on the ground during elections, when votes are counted and it’s revealed how the people of Tamil Nadu perceive this alliance as a united force or as an artificially imposed partnership. Only time will tell.
